AI adoption in Baltic and European commerce: what the public data shows (mid-2026)

BAICA's own region-wide survey of AI adoption in Baltic commerce is in the field now, with results due in Q4 2026. Until then, a fair amount can already be said from public data. This note pulls together the most recent official statistics — mainly from Eurostat's 2025 digital economy surveys — on how businesses are adopting AI, and what that means for commerce teams in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.

Finding 1: One in five EU enterprises now uses AI — and adoption is accelerating

In 2025, 20.0% of EU enterprises with 10 or more employees used at least one AI technology, up from 13.5% in 2024 — a rise of 6.5 percentage points in a single year (Eurostat news release, 11 December 2025). For context, the figure was 7.7% in 2021. Denmark (42.0%), Finland (37.8%) and Sweden (35.0%) lead; Romania (5.2%) trails. Whatever else is uncertain about AI, the direction in European business is not.

Finding 2: The Baltics are not moving together — and Lithuania is climbing fastest

Lithuania recorded one of the three largest year-on-year increases in AI adoption in the EU in 2025, at +12.5 percentage points — behind only Denmark (+14.5 pp) and Finland (+13.5 pp) (Eurostat).

The 2025 adoption levels for each Baltic state are published in Eurostat's dataset isoc_eb_ai (enterprises with 10+ employees):

• Estonia: ~15% of enterprises use at least one AI technology (below the EU average of 20.0%).
• Lithuania: ~20% (broadly in line with the EU average, after one of the largest year-on-year jumps in the EU).
• Latvia: ~4% (well below the EU average).
• Approximate values based on Eurostat isoc_eb_ai (2025 reference year), rounded. Consult the linked databrowser table for exact figures and revisions.

The three countries are on visibly different trajectories, and where a national figure sits below the EU average, the case for practical AI education aimed at local businesses makes itself. That gap is precisely what our own survey is designed to measure inside commerce specifically.

Finding 3: In retail, AI is above all a marketing and sales tool

Among EU enterprises that use AI, 34.7% apply it to marketing or sales — and in retail trade specifically, that share rises to 48.2% (Eurostat Statistics Explained). The most widely used technology types across the EU are text mining (11.8%), image/video/audio generation (9.5%) and written or spoken language generation (8.8%). For commerce teams, this matches what we see in practice: product content, customer service and campaign work are where AI lands first.

Finding 4: Adoption is not the same as value

Globally, McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that 88% of organisations now use AI in at least one business function — but only 39% attribute any bottom-line (EBIT) impact to it, and roughly two-thirds have not yet begun scaling AI beyond pilots (McKinsey, The State of AI, November 2025). The lesson for commerce teams: the gap between "we use AI" and "AI moves our numbers" is where most of the work is.

Finding 5: The regulatory clock runs out on 2 August 2026

From 2 August 2026, the EU AI Act's rules for high-risk AI systems listed in Annex III and the Article 50 transparency rules enter into application, and enforcement begins at national and EU level (European Commission AI Act Service Desk). Penalties for the most serious infringements reach €35 million or 7% of global annual turnover (EU AI Act, Article 99). For most commerce businesses the practical duties are transparency ones. Our EU AI Act checklist walks through this in plain language.

What this means for Baltic commerce teams

1. Adoption is accelerating, not levelling off. The EU average rose more in the past year (+6.5 pp) than in the previous three years combined.
2. Start where the data says value shows up: marketing, sales and content. Nearly half of AI-using retailers apply AI there. It is also the lowest-risk entry point under the AI Act, provided transparency rules are respected.
3. Compliance and adoption are now the same project. With enforcement live from August 2026, "try AI" and "use AI responsibly" can no longer be separate workstreams — the topics our four Knowledge Hub guides cover.

Methodology note

This note is desk research of publicly available sources, compiled by BAICA in July 2026. Enterprise statistics refer to enterprises with 10 or more persons employed, excluding the financial sector, per Eurostat methodology. Figures were retrieved from the Eurostat dissemination database in July 2026; Eurostat data are subject to revision. BAICA has no commercial relationships with any vendor and this note recommends no products.

Sources

• Eurostat, "20% of EU enterprises use AI technologies", 11 December 2025
• Eurostat Statistics Explained, "Use of artificial intelligence in enterprises"
• Eurostat dataset isoc_eb_ai
• European Commission, AI Act Service Desk — implementation timeline
• EU AI Act, Article 99 (Penalties)
• McKinsey, "The State of AI", November 2025